South Africa votes

The ANC, who have held power since democracy began in South Africa, took a beating.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the elections in India and Indonesia. They were two elections of continuity, India returning an incumbent (though one who took a bit of a thump from the electorate); and Indonesia electing a continuity candidate. 

But continuity has not been the overarching theme of this global election year. In much of the world, we’re seeing the opposite: change. In the UK, ‘change’ was the one-word tagline of the winning Labour Party. In the US, we will definitely see a change of administration regardless of which side takes the win. 

What are the forces that drive this desire for change? Well, Indians and Indonesians felt more prosperous under their incumbents, so voted for more of the same. But much of the world has been hit by a post-Covid surge in inflation and an economic hit from war overseas. If your wallet is full, you vote for more of the same. If it feels empty, you vote for change. 

South Africa: Ramaphosa’s Rocky Return

This election in South Africa came at an important moment for the country. 2024 marks 30 years since the end of apartheid, making it the seventh election in which Black South Africans could vote. 

In 1990, Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress (ANC) party was banned from running and Mandela himself was in prison. In 1994, as the number of eligible voters jumped from 3 million to 22 million, Mandela and the ANC won with 62% of the vote. A decisive mandate for change and an end to the horrors of apartheid. 

The ANC has decisively won every election since, only in 2019 did their percentage of the vote even dip below 60%. Until this year: the ANC’s vote share plummeted, ultimately barely scraping 40%. 

President Cyril Ramaphosa took over as President and leader of the ANC in 2018 from Jacob Zuma. Zuma’s tenure was constantly clouded by corruption and cronyism. He used taxpayer money to fund an £11m refurbishment to his home, including adding a pool and amphitheater. He was the only politician to be booed at the funeral of Nelson Mandela. This was just the surface of corruption that ran deep in Zuma’s premiership, and ultimately has seen him spend time behind bars. 

But, despite his corruption, Zuma is popular with many South Africans. His arrest triggered the worst unrest the country has seen as his supporters took the streets: more than 350 people died. 

In this election, he returned: starting his own party and running in the election: with many commentators attributing the ANC’s fall to him.

Zuma is the populist of South Africa. Like Trump and Johnson, he’s knee-deep in corruption and crime, a blot on the international stage: yet extremely popular. Like Modi, he appeals to a single ethnicity (in his case, Zulus) and sets out a vision of a non-secular nation.

Unlike those men, though, who hijacked a traditional party as their vehicle for power, Zuma set up his own. His newly formed MK party secured 58 seats in the election (even though he himself was barred from running as an MP). 

And Zuma, just like Trump, insisted the vote was rigged against him. These guys are all working from the same playbook. 

Aside from Zuma, South Africans had several issues to think about when going to the polls. 

One is unemployment, which has skyrocketed in the last two decades. South Africa has the worst unemployment in the world, one in three people is without a job. There’s enormous disparities between the richest and poorest areas, making the unemployment issue one of equity as well as economics. 

Crime is also rising. Carjackings have more than doubled in the last decade and robberies sharply increasing since COVID hit. Even more worryingly, sexual offences are rising and murders are up more than 60% in the last ten years. 

When things are trending in the wrong direction and have been for so long, it’s almost surprising that the ANC have survived this long.

But South Africa's history adds another dimension. The effects of apartheid continue to linger and it’s the areas with a majority of Black South Africans that see the worst of the unemployment and crime. Because of historical segregation, these areas have the worst schools and the worst employment prospects. The white population own the majority of land, despite being the minority, and as many as 20% of Black South Africans don’t have any access to housing. This level of segregation is very clearly wrong, and harkens back to a blot in South Africa’s past. The ANC represents the journey away from that time, and a party with the interests of Black South Africans at its heart. 

But memories fade, and a generation of young South Africans don’t hold the ANC in the same deference as their older relatives: 42% of eligible voters in South Africa are under 40, making them children (if they were even born) when Mandela led South Africa out of apartheid.

Sure enough, the ANC lost their majority. Though remaining the largest party, they were forced to form a coalition. President Cyril Ramaphosa took it in good grace, saying the result “in many ways represents a victory for our democracy for South Africans.”

The most viable pairing would be between the ANC and the DA, a centrist party favoured by South Africa’s white voters. But this option was politically toxic on both sides: ANC supporters fear that the DA will deepen inequalities that exist in the country by advocating for ‘white interests’, while DA supporters are deeply distrustful of the ANC’s past corruption. 

To make it politically viable, Ramaphosa extended an open invitation for anyone to join a ‘government of national unity’. He only needed the DA, but his positioning of a unity government rather than a coalition would avoid the accusation that the DA and ANC are snuggling into bed together (a metaphor Brits will remember from 2010), and instead can insist that he’s hosting a slumber party. 

They were joined by two much smaller parties, commanding less than 30 seats between them: the Inkatha Freedom party (IFP), a Zulu nationalist party, and the Patriotic Alliance (PA). The latter has some pretty contentious views, not least bringing back the death penalty. 

So what can South Africa’s election tell us about world politics? Firstly, no party is owed anything. The ANC held onto power on the back of their role in dismantling apartheid, but as generations shifted - that historical precedent was easily broken. Second, populism follows a playbook: Zuma’s popularity closely mirrors that of those across the world who promise easy answers to difficult questions. 

What will be interesting to follow, now, is how voters react to having voted for change, and got more of the same. 60% of South Africans voted against the incumbent, so will be surprised to see him back in the President’s chair. It was the only plausible outcome, given the parliamentary arithmetic, but it will make for a precarious governing situation - and a watchable next election.