TACOs

Hard shells, soft centres

Few things in this life are certain. We can only hope that the sun will rise each morning and set each night. Yet one thing does manage to be a perpetual certainty in this uncertain world.

Trump Always Chickens Out.

This - the TACO effect - has been a staple of Trump’s administration since day one. The playbook is the same every time: some huge announcement, days of turmoil, and then a walkback.

On his so-called ‘Liberation Day’, Trump stood with a board of new tariffs that he would place on countries around the world (including 10% on Heard and McDonald Islands - an uninhabited group of Antarctic islands).

When the stock market crashed, Trump paused. TACO.

And he’s done the same thing again on Greenland. Lots of fighting talk, murmurs of military, threats of tariffs and then - TACO. Proper despots invade when they say they will - Trump remains a wannabe.

It’s become such an inevitable effect that market traders can now reliably predict stock market moves. The market dips on his announcement (buy), then recovers on his chickening out (profit).

The Populist’s Problem

The perpetual problem for the populist is popularity. Doing the right thing is not always popular, and the popular thing is not always right. And voters always want to have their cake, eat it and not put on any weight too.

American Republicans love the sound of tariffs, but they also hate its inevitable consequences - inflation and stock market crashes. So the job of a leader is to choose which pain is worth which opportunity.

The job of a populist is to be popular at all costs. That means you must be Schrödinger’s President - who both announces tariffs and does not announce tariffs at the same time. You must show Americans this America-first mentality, while not allowing the stock market to wobble.

And look - TACO is good for us liberal fans of world order. We end up getting what we want. But Trump has put forward a genuine policy platform (America First, income via tariffs, expansion of the American Empire by force) that his supporters have voted for. He’s not delivering it, and he’s causing chaos while he fails to deliver.

Farage Always Runs Terrified

Just like the Trump Always Chickens Out effect, the same thing would happen under Nigel Farage. Maybe you’d call it Farage Always Runs Terrified.

He’d close the doors to immigration and discourage people from coming to the country. His supporters are pleased. Then the economy would shudder: staff shortages in key sectors, markets wobble, pensions start devaluing. His supporters are suddenly angry. Farage, whose only concern is popularity, must swing the doors wide open to abate this effect.

How do you inject billions into the NHS while also reducing the deficit? How do you massacre the civil service while supposedly implementing the most radical changes to the state in decades? How do you cut benefits while retaining the support of low-income households (one of the largest supporters of Reform)?

The answer: you don’t. A politician chooses a path and takes it, acknowledging the pain it will cause. Quality public services mean higher taxes. Cutting spending means a smaller state. More money for the NHS means less money elsewhere.

A populist promises the world and delivers, well, TACOs.