Keir today, gone tomorrow

The merry-go-round of PMs continues

Two years after winning an election with a landslide, Keir Starmer has been forced out of his office by aggravated Parliamentary backbenchers. 

It’s almost the exact same fate suffered by the last Prime Minister to win an election - Boris Johnson, booted out just two years after winning a landslide. Keir may be surprised to have suffered the same fate as a man he, for all we know, seemed to genuinely, deeply dislike. 

Labour MPs are no doubt wondering if they’ve made the right choice to force out the leader that saved their party from decades of malaise. 

As he listed off his achievements - wages finally rising faster than inflation, the fastest fall to NHS waiting lists in 17 years, the biggest improvement in worker and renter rights and the biggest uplift in defence spending since the cold war - it beggars belief that he’s being booted out for being too boring. 

As world leaders Tweet their respect and admiration for the British Prime Minister (with one notable exception), Labour MPs may wonder if we’ve damaged our place on the global stage. 

When a Prime Minister who, by all metrics, was sending the country in the right direction is booted out by a rabid mob of MPs, it is hard not to conclude that Britain is ungovernable. The next Prime Minister will be our seventh in ten years. Ed Davey calls it the “merry-go-round” of Prime Ministers: he’s right. 

(One way to cut public spending - stop shifting Prime Minister. The taxpayer foots their moving bill). 

As I see it, this instability at the top of Britain is caused by several factors. One is that we’ve tried to create a presidential role in a parliamentary system. Another is that the Civil Service is so logjammed and unproductive that the levers of power are effectively useless. 

But, above all, forces outside Westminster have taken a poisoned pill in pursuit of power. They’ve discovered that you can use a combination of rhetoric and social media to rile up the public and batter an incumbent. This has been the playbook of the populist for decades, but it is now going mainstream. 

Convince the public that the incumbent hates them, the system is rigged against them and nothing is getting better. Talk about everything that is broken in the country, talk down our prospects, make everyone miserable. Tell the country that something is possible, but government doesn’t do it because they hate the public. 

It works - the public will grow angry and hate their leader. The agitator will get into office. But that same anger will soon poison their term. 

Andy Burnham will quickly realise that throwing rocks at Westminster is a lot less popular when you are Westminster. Burnham will find that you can no longer call yourself the political outsider when you’re in charge of British politics (and everyone remembers you’ve had a 30 year political career). All of the anger and frustration that he’s helped provoke will land directly on his lap. 

His biggest problem: he won’t change a thing. The arithmetic hasn’t changed. 

Britain is still in mountains of debt, and the bond markets will not allow Burnham to go on a spending spree. 

Legal and illegal immigration are slowly falling, the left-wing factions that have paved Burnham’s route to Downing Street won’t let him make it happen any faster. 

Andy Burnham has no policy ideas beyond “North Good South Bad”. He has no plan beyond “something something Manchester”. He’s not going to be a radical reformer. He’s hoping the power of his personality will see him do the same things as Starmer and get different results. But the problem: he’s not even that great a speaker - in set pieces, he’s just as stilted and boring as Starmer. He shines in smaller group settings: they’re ten a penny when you’re a mayor. You don’t get to do as many as PM. 

The way out

There is a way out of the madness. 

Raise taxes. The country needs more money for defence, the NHS, education and the pursuit of net-zero. Andy Burnham has the political maneuverability to break Labour’s manifesto promise of no tax rises - he needs to do it early and rip the band-aid. 

Cut welfare. It’s too late to reverse Labour’s ridiculous decision to scrap the two child limit on child benefits and the winter fuel allowance U-Turn, but Andy Burnham needs to take action on the ballooning welfare bill. Scrap the pension triple lock (pensions are the largest proportion of welfare spending) and tighten up PIP. 

Build infrastructure. Building nuclear power stations, laying train tracks and building houses create jobs and improve the economy. The government is beholden to the lawfare of activists, campaigning of NIMBYs and the lure of short-termism. Burnham must build if he wants to boost British prospects. 

Prioritise defence. The first job of a government is safeguarding the country. The world is rapidly becoming more dangerous. Now is the moment to invest in defence for the 21st century. Not just tanks and missiles, but cybersecurity and AI capabilities. 

Whip the party. Labour’s biggest problem is Labour. It’s a hodge-podge mix of commies and Blairites, remainer uni students and Brexiteer union bosses. Unless this party is united, they will forever tear themselves apart: Keir Starmer faced just as much mud slinging from his own side as the opposite. Unless you back Labour, you shouldn’t be in Labour, and you certainly shouldn’t be able to influence the party. This takes guts - Andy Burnham needs them.