A psychologist in California asked 284 experts to make predictions about the future. These experts made predictions for a living: they were economic and political forecasters.
The result? They were no more accurate than pure chance. A monkey throwing darts could make predictions equally as reliable as the experts.
So making predictions is a fool’s game. Being right is little more than getting lucky, and being wrong just makes you look silly.
With that in mind, here are my predictions for politics and the world in the year ahead.
1. Trump and Elon Musk will have a falling out.
Trump has a knack for falling out with his allies: seemingly the closer they are, the harder they fall. In his first term, right-hand man Steve Bannon was out just seven months into Trump’s presidency. By the end of four years, Trump had even fallen out with his VP Mike Pence.
Elon Musk’s politics change like the tides. Today, he’s the Republicans poster boy - but in 2008 he backed Obama. Elon Musk loves green energy, and I expect Trump won’t go far enough to satisfy him here. I also think he’ll find it much harder than he thinks to cut government spending via his Department Of Government Efficiency.
2. Inflation will rise in the US, denting Trump’s popularity.
There’s been global economic turmoil over the past two years - driven in particular by sky-high inflation. Inflation has slowed now, and most countries are back to where they want to be.
In the US, Trump won largely on the pain that America felt from inflation: he promised to get it under control. But one of the policies he looks set to pursue aggressively is tariffs on global imports.
In 2018, when Trump introduced tariffs on washing machines, their price rose by 12%. I’m no economist but it seems to be that sweeping tariffs - as promised by Trump - would have an effect like this across the economy. It’d be dangerous territory for Trump, whose principal objective should be getting prices under control.
3. Kemi will still be Tory leader.
I don’t think Kemi Badenoch was the right choice for Tory leader. She does not have the skill or temperament to be Prime Minister, and (a lesson from Jeremy Corbyn): a good Leader of the Opposition should be a PM-in-waiting.
I suspect the Conservatives will do worse than they are expecting in local elections next year. Reform UK will continue to hit them and create an opening for Labour, Lib Dems and Greens to sneak in.
If I’m right, it’ll be enough of a battering that people start asking questions about Kemi, and whether she is the right person to lead the Tories into the next election, but not enough that there’s any serious momentum behind replacing her.
4. Labour will have a better year.
Half of Brits are disappointed with Labour’s time in office so far, and it does seem to have been marked by a lot of consultations, white papers and plans to have a plan. Labour absolutely needs to get a grip on three areas: immigration, crime and the NHS. There can’t be any more catchphrases or proposals, the numbers just have to start falling.
I suspect numbers will go in Labour’s direction next year. On immigration, a Labour government has more maneuverability than a Tory government, with human rights lawyers and courts more likely to give them the benefit of the doubt. On the NHS and crime, Labour is investing substantially more - and over 12 months, you’d expect to see that investment recuperated.
Maybe I’m optimistic - but I suspect Starmer’s approval ratings will be higher this time next year than they are today.
5. You’ll hear a lot more about BRICS.
BRICS is a strategic alliance between several countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. Together, they form something like a challenger group against the traditional, G7-dominated world order.
Global tensions are perhaps reaching their highest level since the Cold War, and it seems likely a new dividing line will emerge between NATO and the emerging (typically anti-democracy) powers - led by Russia and China. Countries like India, Brazil and South Africa (and Turkey) will have to pick a side.
I suspect BRICS will be an important talking point for 2025. Their summit, in the latter half of 2025, will be hosted in Brazil and will generate, I suspect, a fair few headlines.
6. TikTok will evade its ban.
On 19 January, the US will begin enforcing a ban on TikTok. Despite their best efforts, TikTok has been unable to renegotiate the ban - with the courts upholding the ruling.
A last gasp attempt to save TikTok by its Chinese parent company ByteDance will take place on 10 January, and it’s not yet clear which side the Supreme Court will take.
Trump, during his first term, also tried to get TikTok banned - but he failed. This time around, he seems to have flip-flopped, making offhand comments that he would save the company.
I suspect TikTok will find a way to survive. Either the Supreme Court, or an out-of-power Trump, will intervene to keep the app’s lights on perhaps with new security arrangements.
7. A new advance in AI will prevent the bubble from bursting.
While I’m keen on AI, it’s also inevitable that at some point the bubble will burst. Nvidia has added nearly 3 trillion dollars to its market value in two years, and there’s now some 70,000 AI companies globally. It mirrors the dot-com bubble to a tee.
But I think the bubble will keep growing, for at least one more year, depending on a breakthrough of some variety: be it faster, more efficient chip-making, a model that radically outperforms current offerings, or some way of making agentic AI available to the masses.
In the ‘reasons to be optimistic’ column, a big potential risk for AI is regulation: Trump is unlikely to be a heavy-hand on US regulation and Europe is feeling the pinch of its trigger-happy regulation so is likely to be a bit looser in the year ahead.
8. Germany will narrowly keep the AfD out of the Bundestag.
After a bumper election year, 2025 will be quieter on the democracy front. Romania will re-run its Presidential election after finding Russians influenced the result (including via TikTok). The UK will vote for Councillors in local elections.
In February, Germany will run a federal election. The country has been in political turmoil: a coalition of chaos is running a minority government, which eventually collapsed in November. You can expect to see, just like in Romania, increasingly brazen Russian interference in the election.
The Christian Democrats, Angela Merkel’s party, look set to re-enter government but will face a challenge from the far-right AfD party - most recently backed by Elon Musk. The AfD will almost certainly not be governing Germany in 3 months’ time, as every other party will unify against it. But they will put on their strongest electoral showing in history - a frightening time for Germany.
9. The Eagles will win the Super Bowl.
Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are an unstoppable alliance: if all remain healthy during the play-offs, I suspect they’ll take the NFC. If they face the Chiefs in a rematch of 2023, the Eagles can follow the playbook of the Buffalo Bills, the only team to beat Mahomes this season. If not the Chiefs, they should beat the Ravens as they already have done this season - and look to me like a marginally better team than the Bills.
Very insightful